Desi In Toronto

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Athens, Ga. – Despite overwhelming military superiority, the world’s most powerful nations failed to achieve their objectives in 39 percent of their military operations since World War II, according to a new University of Georgia study.

The study, by assistant professor Patricia L. Sullivan in the UGA School of Public and International Affairs, explains the circumstances under which more powerful nations are likely to fail and creates a model that allows policymakers to calculate the probability of success in current and future conflicts.

“If you know some key variables – like the major objective, the nature of the target, whether there’s going to be another strong state that will intervene on the side of the target and whether you’ll have an ally – you can get a sense of your probability of victory,” said Sullivan, whose study appears in the June issue of the Journal of Conflict Resolution.

………………

Based on Sullivan’s model, the current war in Iraq has a probability of success of nearly 26 percent with an estimated duration of 10 years,

When the common language of the universe says that there is no hope with Iraq (or Afghanistan, for that matter), isn’t it time to leave?

These days experts come in all shapes and sizes……

Recently I logged into World of Warcraft and I wound up questing alongside a mage and two dwarf warriors. I was the lowest-level newbie in the group, and the mage was the de-facto leader. He coached me on the details of each new quest, took the point position in dangerous fights and suggested tactics. He seemed like your classic virtual-world group leader: Confident, bold and streetsmart.

But after a few hours he said he was getting tired of using text chat — and asked me to switch over to Ventrilo, an app that lets gamers chat using microphones and voice. I downloaded Ventrilo, logged in, dialed him up and …

… realized he was an 11-year-old boy, complete with squeaky, prepubescent vocal chords. When he laughed, his voice shot up abruptly into an octave range that induced headaches and probably killed any dogs within earshot. Oh, and he used “motherfucker” about four times a sentence, except when his mother came into his bedroom to check on him.

I have always seen my dad as the “know it all” person. Ask him abou tpolitics, sports, coooking, grocery shopping, cars etc. and he will give competent answers except when it comes to cmoputers and related technologies. Then he is alost babe in the woods. It’s kind of sad but at the same time it’s heartening to know that there is something I know better than him.

I was a big supporter of the NATO mission in Afghanistan. The intent was noble. The will (political and military) was adamant about rooting out Taliban and Al Qaeda from that country and put it on a path of self determination. The citizens of Afghanistan seemed to want to throw out Taliban to better their lives.

But NATO’s mission in Afghanistan has failed on all counts. There is no political leadership anymore. Militarily NATO is strong but has absolutely no clue on how to fight an insurgency. The citizens of Afghanistan are exactly where they were 5 years ago. Self determination is a joke. NATO itself is fragmented with some member countries refusing to pull their weight leaving the country to US and Canada to manage.

So what happened to the noble idea of “introducing democracy to Afghanistan”? It got left in the dust by Iraq. That’s what happened. When the focus of US shifted to Iraq, Afghanistan became a lost project. It’s broken and no one wants to pick the pieces.

And who is facing the brunt of the failed cause? The citizens of Afghanistan and 25 - 26 year old idealist kids from NATO countries. The citizens of Afghanistan are paying the higher price. All they want to do is to continue to live. But they continue to answer to warlords and continue facing insurgents’ wrath of having aided the foreign enemy.

And what about the kids from NATO countries. They went to Afghanistan with the hope of helping build a society but what are they actually doing. No one knows. And this is the biggest beef I have with the whole mission. What is the objective of the NATO mission? What are the short term and long term goals? It seems like no one has sat down and actually thought about that for a while.

Canada was quick to contribute to the mission but when you think about it, what exactly was the plan of action? Did Canada go in to the mission because it was a quick way to extract “revenge” from Al Qaeda for 9/11? Or did Canada really have noble intention which, when faced with the reality of the situation in Afghanistan, was grounded to dust.

I think this mission is going nowhere now. Kids and citizens are dying for reasons unknown. Our political masters are playing god. And the politics is hidden behind the logo Supporting The Troops because to pull them out would mean “defeat”. I think that disingenuous. And it’s our troops who are paying the price for this moronic attitude by politicians (well, I was one of them
so I guess it’s a poor reflection on my “logical mind”).

The mission has (semi-) failed. Now is the time to pull out of Afghanistan. And arbitrary pullout date of 2009 is meaningless. Start in the next 6 months and finish by mid - 2008. The security on the ground should be left to the Afghanistanis. The more we try and baby sit them, the more difficulty they will have in taking those crucial baby steps.

It’s time to bring the troops back home.

For all sci-fi fans, here is the answer as to why life has never been found in the universe.

“They’re made out of meat.”

“Meat?”

“Meat. They’re made out of meat.”

“Meat?”

“There’s no doubt about it. We picked up several from different parts of the planet, took them aboard our recon vessels, and probed them all the way through. They’re completely meat.”

“That’s impossible. What about the radio signals? The messages to the stars?”

“They use the radio waves to talk, but the signals don’t come from them. The signals come from machines.”

“So who made the machines? That’s who we want to contact.”

“They made the machines. That’s what I’m trying to tell you. Meat made the machines.”

……….

“So we just pretend there’s no one home in the Universe.”

“That’s it.”

“Cruel. But you said it yourself, who wants to meet meat? And the ones who have been aboard our vessels, the ones you probed? You’re sure they won’t remember?”

“They’ll be considered crackpots if they do. We went into their heads and smoothed out their meat so that we’re just a dream to them.”

A combination of a trip to New York, visit by folks from India and PC problems, I could not blog for over a month. But am back now!!